When is it appropriate to start thinking playoffs? The first game of the season. Getting to the playoffs is the goal of every team, or at least should be. So judging the competition and evaluating performance of your team in terms of the playoff picture makes sense. How is the conference playing out? Who are the key teams? Who’s for real? Who’s a fake? What are our chances once we’re there?

The Lakers are certainly for real. Considering they have improvements to make on defense they could be even better. Their win over Boston wasn’t enough to convince anyone that they are the dominant team in the league, but they are very good. With Bynum back from injury and Gasol playing the 4 they don’t have any weaknesses. Their bench players like Walton have been playing very well lately, although they will be missing serviceable backup PG Jordan Farmar for a month with a knee injury. They are putting up 107 pts per game and are killers at home.

The Hornets are a well-rounded club that can play up-tempo or slow the game down when they need to. Anchored by Chris Paul, Peja Stojakovic, and David West the club can reliably score enough points to win games while getting it done on the defensive end by giving up only 91 pts per game. If Peja can stay healthy and their role players continue to contribute as they have they will remain a premiere team in the West.

Let’s be clear – this is San Antonio’s last run. Their teams average age is 29.2 yrs old according to ESPN.com with NO young talent emerging thus far (Tony Parker is only 26 but he’s got some wear and tear). Tim, Tony, and Manu have been enough for the Spurs up until this point, but those days are numbered. Some sort of trade or free agent signing could change that next summer. They are certainly good enough to get to the Western Conference Finals, but another championship seems unlikely.

As the 7^th seed the Mavericks are not in a favorable position. Dallas should play to try to position themselves as a 4^th or 5^th seed. Anything less makes them susceptible to another one-and-done season and this team has too much potential for that kind of disappointment. Teams that Dallas wants to avoid are the current top three of LA, New Orleans, and San Antonio. Those teams will be incredibly tough to beat. I’m assuming the top three are going to stay the same with probably San Antonio ending up as the second seed. The 4^th seed for the Mavericks would be ideal because of home court and better matchup opportunities.

Denver, Houston, and Portland are all beatable in seven game series. Chauncey Billups is playing well in Denver and has them producing with regularity on the offensive end. JR Smith is playing far better than I thought he ever would, and even Nene doesn’t look like crap. Their defense isn’t as good as it has been in years past, which could be a real problem come playoff time. Houston has done well to keep everyone mostly healthy, but it never lasts for very long. One or more of their Big Three will go down when it matters most and they’ll once again go home first round losers, if they don’t slip out of the top 8 all together. Portland is playing well and is an exciting young team to watch. I think they are over reaching a bit right now. I’m predicting a 7^th seed for them as they falter a bit but give San Antonio well hell of a scare in the first round this year.

Phoenix sits at the 8^th seed right now with Utah just out of it at 19-14. Utah hasn’t been healthy all year and is still without Boozer (for at least a month) and Paul Millsap (ready to return within the next week). Deron Williams is getting back into the swing of things after missing the beginning of the season, and Ronnie Brewer is stepping up big in place of Boozer and Millsap. Utah is a good team that plays well on both ends. They certainly have the talent to get into the playoffs, but probably not as high a seed because of that slow start. Phoenix, on the other hand, isn’t nearly as good and will probably not make the playoffs this year. They are giving up 102 pts per game on sieve-like defense, and are inconsistent on the offensive end. They have talented veteran players on their team but, without D’Antoni’s offensive minded coaching, just can’t put it all together.

Grant Hill, Jason Richardson, Matt Barnes, and Leandro Barbosa are all overrated. Shaq can still put together a commanding performance, but only twice a year. The best players on the team are Steve Nash with a bad back getting worse and the never consistent Amare Stoudemire. Their young talent consists of Robin Lopez and… that’s it. Oh did I mention they are coached by Terry Porter whose blank stare looks like he’s just had dental surgery and could start drooling at any moment. They’ll end up on the outside looking in and kicking themselves for letting D’Antoni go.

I see the playoff breakdown like this:

Lakers, Spurs, Hornets, Denver, Dallas, Utah, Portland, and Houston.

Lakers whoop Houston like they stole somethin’. Spurs slip past Portland in a tough seven games. Utah beats the Hornets because New Orleans doesn’t have an advantage at home with all 12 of their fans showing up. Dallas beats Denver when George Karl, Carmelo Anthony, JR Smith, and Kenyon Martin are suspended for 3 of the 6 games for brawling with each other.

Lakers beat Dallas but we put up a good fight. Spurs beat Utah in a seven game series that deserves to be played in the Thunderdome.

Lakers beat a very tired and beat up San Antonio team in 5 games.

If only there was another team in Dallas that could come back from a large deficit to win the game. Hmm.

The game against Minnesota showed me 3 things:

• Dallas can be a better defensive team, but it’s going to take a lot work.
• Minnesota has some talented players that they can build on.
• Kevin McHale is the worst thing to happen to the NBA since short-shorts ensuring their young talented players are wasted.

After giving up 62 points in the first half Dallas limited the TWolves to only 38 points in the second half. How did it happen? I have no idea. I watched the game and the highlights and I still have no idea. Stats show Minnesota had only 12 turnovers, but from watching the game it seemed like they would have had more. Differential for offensive rebounds was only 6. With that second half it seems like it would be more. Only 8 steals and 8 blocked shots for the Mavs. Did they play better defense? Yes. Hustle plays, rebounding, steals, and especially blocks in the 3^rd quarter to start their return helped. But again I’m just not sure exactly how. I think Minnesota helped quite a bit, which ties into my next points.

Minnesota has some talented young players that are exciting to watch. Al Jefferson is a powerhouse, and Gomes, Brewer (currently injured), and Foye are athletic and fun to watch. Kevin Love might turn out to be a capable forward. I’m not really sold on McCants, even though he has a way of making Dallas look bad (he was 4-4 last night). There’s potential there for a 24 yr old kid.

Unfortunately those young talented players are surrounded by less talented players. Sebastian Telfair is gawd-awful. He dashes into the lane flailing his arms and legs about like a string-puppet in a north Texas thunderstorm. He hits the rim 1 out of 37 times, and gets 0.17229 assists per game for his career (please note 33% of all statistics in this article are completely made up). Brian Cardinal looks like Slingblade. Mike Miller is a solid veteran, although unreliable through the years due to injuries (didn’t play last night… due to injury).

Luckily for Dallas the Timberwolves are currently coached and managed by Kevin McHale. McCants only played 13 minutes even though he was money from the field – a terrible decision! Telfair was only 5-12 from the field but played 22 minutes. Amazingly craptacular!! Kevin Love pulled down 7 boards in 18 mins, but lost time to the 31 yr old Brian Cardinal who pulled down 5 boards in 27 minutes of playing time. Craptastic!! McHale’s suckage hasn’t only affected the Wolves of course. His disgusting trade with pal GM Danny Ainge ensured a shift in the time/space continuum by sending Kevin Garnett to the Boston Celtics for Al Jefferson, Sebastian Telfair, and a box of Junior Mints. That trade eventually leads to a NBA Championship in Boston, a contract extension for Doc Rivers, and statements from Bill Walton that the Eastern Conference is “vastly superior” to the Western Conference on ESPN about a month ago – all reasons Kevin McHale will probably end up shot by some crazed TWolves fan in a dark alley somewhere. I know that would be impossible since there are no fans left thanks to Kevin McHale driving Minnesota into a ditch.

Mavericks should feel damn lucky to have a personnel manager like Donnie Nelson around.

Dallas (4-7) 96 at Houston (7-4) 86

Yes, 3 wins in a row is a winning streak. Although the first two may have seemed like gimmes against the Knicks and Bobcats, Dallas traveled to Houston and beat the best team defense on their own court. Sure the Rockets were without Yao Ming and have an ailing Ron Artest and Tracy McGrady (of course) but a win is a win. And a streak is a streak. And like Kevin Costner said in Bull Durham ‘You don’t f*** with a winning streak.’

Another well managed game by Rick Carlisle kept Dallas playing smart and up-tempo basketball throughout. Dallas wasn’t running at every opportunity, but his style is showing through by limiting those one-touch-and-shoot possessions. It seems the team is understanding that when they run their plays, manage the game, play team defense, and stay positive that they are capable of winning.

With Yao Ming out of the game and TMac limping Houston didn’t have a go-to-guy. Ron Artest was effective on the boards but never got into offensive rhythm, thanks mostly to Shawne Williams defense. Williams was only 2 for 11 from the field but played 31 mins because of how he was playing Houston’s biggest threat. Artest, hobbled by a bad ankle, couldn’t separate from the quick Williams who stayed in front of him and contested every shot. Houston had few others to rely on as Alston, Brooks, and Scola couldn’t score more than 16 pts a piece. The only other shooter on the roster, Brent Barry, was 0 for 6.

On the offensive end Dallas turned to Jason Terry off the bench to carry the team. With 31 pts 4 assists and 3 steals Terry put the team on his back and gave the Mavericks what they needed when they needed it. Adding Kidd’s 7 assists and Dirk’s 24 pts including 9-9 from the charity stripe Dallas marched on to victory.

Rick Carlisle’s group is really starting to show their mettle. The younger players are able to contribute not only consistent minutes, but quality minutes. As Jason Terry ensured points were going on the board Brandon Bass and Shawne Williams kept Luis Scola and Ron Artest at bay in the 4th quarter. It is clear that play on both ends of the court is expected from all players. In an important game for Dallas their method remained unchanged – under 40 mins for Dirk, Terry, and Kidd while no one played less than 14 minutes. This isn’t just team play, it’s team growth.

I have to admit this is a vast improvement over Avery Johnson’s methodology. If you remember the 06-07 season Johnson relied completely on one-on-one matchups and a slow pace to win games. That play did not prepare the Mavericks for the quick pace small-ball they faced in the 1st round of the playoffs against Golden State. In addition the players that needed minutes the most didn’t get them while older NBA standards Jerry Stackhouse, Devean George, and Austin Croshere played crunch time. Even in games that were blowouts. It was nonsensical to have players with years of experience play over younger talent that you needed to evaluate, and you can only really evaluate players in game situations (see Jermaine ONeal or even DeSagana Diop). The 06-07 team was touted for having a deep bench, but it was hardly used (in terms of minutes, not overall age).

Head coach Rick Carlisle has changed that and is developing these no-names. He got Shawne Williams from the Pacers in the off-season because he knew his potential. The same goes for Singleton and Green. These are trees that he thinks can bear fruit, and he’s going to give them time to do so. When you have two future Hall of Famers in Kidd and Nowitzki, an All-Star in Howard, and a proven shooter in Terry you have that opportunity and can still win games.

Let’s hope all that talent ripens come playoff time.

Dallas (3-7) 100 at Charlotte (3-6) 83

The Mavericks won their second game in a row by overwhelming advantage of talent emphasised by the Bobcats being without Jason Richardson (day-to-day with an ankle injury). Charlotte, without an inside presense, was dominated inside losing the rebounding battle 50 to 34. Erick Dampier played less than 20 mins still pulled down 11 rebounds and had 3 blocks, while Josh Howard put up 21 pts in wonderful play within 17 feet. In a game that Dallas never trailed they were able to manage the tempo well except for one blemish – 17 turnovers. Luckily Charlotte couldn’t advantage and the Mavs coasted to a win.

This game was closer than it should have been. The Mavericks lack of communication on defense kept the Bobcats hopes alive for a comeback. Poor switching and helping on the defensive end allowed some pretty easy baskets. Add that a cold shooting by Jason Terry and the Bobcats had the possesions to make it a competition, but didn’t convert. Charlotte’s rookie DJ Augustine made some very exciting plays and looks to be in the beginning of a very successful pro career. Without any help inside Charlotte’s going to have a tough year in the Western Conference.

Most impressive in this game was how head coach Rick Carlisle managed it from start to finish. The days of playing Dirk, Josh, and other starters 40 mins a game are gone. He settled the Mavericks into a decent 10 man rotation that allowed plenty of rest for the big name guys while giving much needed experience to the teams younger talent. No player was in for less than 13 mins including one lineup, which was surprisingly effective, of JJ Barea, Terry, Howard, Bass, and James Singleton.

Minutes:

Dirk 37, Howard 35, Terry 34, Kidd 33, Bass 24

Dampier 19, Singleton 16, Barea 15, Green 14, Williams 13

Dallas shot 50% from the field and everyone got a chance to contribute. Dirk and Howard were as reliable as ever. Although Gerald Green isn’t knocking down shots he seems to be able to create his own at will. Shawne Williams is capable of hitting from beyond the arc and James Singleton shows a lot of energy around the rim. Limiting stupid mistakes and turnovers is vital for them to be successful (Kidd and Howard had 6 each). They will have to improve their team defense and force more turnovers against better teams.

Leftovers:

• Don’t think Larry Brown is going to hang around Charlotte for very long. The guy has the attention span of my cat and will find something else as soon as a decent offer comes across his desk.
• Diop and Wright did not play due to Coach’s Decision

There’s been two major trades effecting top Western Conference teams… and Jason Kidd has yet to leave New Jersey. Pau Gasol was traded to the LA Lakers in an apparent fire sale, and Shaq will join the Pheonix Suns (and probably immediately miss 24 games due to injury). The trades say a lot about the state of the Lakers and Suns.

In LA a commitment to Kobe Bryant has been made, made again, and now again. Picking up gift Derek Fisher in the off-season was nice, having Bynum play so well was great, and now getting a bonafide All-Star in Pau Gasol to play forward is stellar. The Lakers are now clearly a contender, and the rest of the conference is stunned in how they pulled it off. The Grizzlies, their season being over weeks ago, decided to give away Gasol for almost notihing in return possibly to setup sale of the team or a move to another city.

Meanwhile the Suns, after all their talk about most points scoring wins games, have stated loud and clear that the ‘run n gun’ won’t win a championship in this league (much less the conference). That can be the only conclusion drawn from trading for the biggest, slowest center in the league in Shaq. Still effective in the half court when healthy, Shaq bolsters and quick team that shoots relatively well considering all the wide open attempts they get (which drives me batty).

Q&A Time:

What’s the state of the Western Conference?

Unchanged. It was the powerhouse conference before, and two of its better teams just got better. All the pre-season talk about the Celtics has been a bit overblown. They are excellent, don’t get me wrong, and so is Detroit. But we’re talking about conferences as a whole and the East just doesn’t match up.

How much has each team improved?

The Lakers can be astonishingly good once Bynum gets back. You could possibly have a lineup of Fisher, Bryant, Odom (6′ 11″), Gasol (7′), and Bynum (7′) without losing speed because the 3 big men are so athletic. The Suns not as much. They lose Shawn Marion who did more for that team than most people realize. He picks up their pieces: rebounds, put-backs, bad defensive rotations, and the list goes on. But Shaq specifically fits a need. The Suns have been overpowered against the strong centers in the West, which should stop now with the addition of Shaq.

And the rest of the West?

Adjustments have to made. A team like Dallas can either hit the panic button, make a move that sends a top-tier point guard to Portland while gaining a relic, or it can stand pat hoping that their coach and top players can mature from two years of disappointing loses. Dallas would be better served making a small deal giving up a backup player on their roster for a specialist (hopefully a shooter or slasher). Other teams like the Spurs and Houston need to get healthy and work out their regular season klinks in their armor.

Just like the Mavs finished up the Grizz in quick fashion, I’ll be knocking down some Quick Shots of my own:

– Eddie Jones appears to be the definition of ‘fouls in bunches’. He can’t stay on the floor long enough to contribute amassing fouls 2-3 at a time, it seems. Not that the savvy vet needs playing time to stay effective, but b-ball is a team game. He needs to learn game trends and tendencies of the players around him just as much as he needs to know his own game. Let’s hope he can get through this tough patch.

- Those that doubt Dirk’s importance to the club need to shush themselves. The evidence in how important Dirk is to this team lies in how other teams play him. They leave players like Devin, Jason, and Josh open because the one they fear most is the Dirkinator. It’s that respect that allows the other players the room to excel as they have so far this season.

- Devin Harris appears to be alright. It’s a bone bruise and will take time to heal. He’ll still get plenty of playing time before the playoffs and is going to miss between 2 and 5 weeks. I say that because usually what happens is the player fights to come back a week early, which causes an additional week or two to be added to the overall time missed. I can hope that doesn’t happen, but I figure it will.

- How come Trenton can’t get no love? He isn’t getting the playing time that Johnson gave Austin Croshere or Greg Buckner last year, but he’s a better overall asset. He’s quick, hustles, and is capable of offense in spurts. I’d like to see him play more and get a feel for things. Mainly because there isn’t a younger player on the roster that would need the time more (sorry Mo Ager).

- Brandon Bass still shows great potential, an athletic frame, and good offensive skills. He needs every minute of playing time he’s getting so he can improve in time for the playoffs. Remember that his development is absolutely key to the Mavericks playoff chances this season.

- Jason Terry seems comfortable in the 6th Man spot, and I couldn’t be happier. His numbers are down, but that hasn’t seemed to make Coach Johnson feel forced into playing him more than he does (which is a lot for a 6th Man). JT needs to keep up the great attitude and keep pushing tempo… and knocking down shots helps too.

- Where’s the influence of Paul Westphal? I’m not sure I see it. Who is he coaching? Where in the game plan is he contributing? I just don’t know. But I’m very curious.

- Has anybody else noticed that all the Mavericks best players on the team this year are players they drafted? Josh Howard, Devin Harris, and Dirk (draft-and-trade only cause Rick Petino was going to draft Dirk first so the Nelson’s worked out a deal with Nellie’s old team in Milwaukee) are all products of successful drafts. Maybe… just maybe… the Mavericks shouldn’t trade away or squander their draft picks and actually use them on talented young college players. HOW ABOUT THAT CONCEPT?!?! I know it’s off the wall, but I just had to suggest it.

That’s it for now. I’m gettin’ another beer.

Over his 13 year career Jerry Stackhouse has proven himself a consistent offensive presence in the NBA tallying over 15,000 points and an 18.8 points per game average. He’s been the Dallas Mavericks 6th Man going on 4 years providing immediate scoring off the bench, and lockerroom leadership. He’s a valuable member of a squad that went to the 2006 NBA Finals and the team that won 67 games last year. He continues his offensive production mainly in isolation plays where he uses his experience and great jump shot against subpar defenders.

It has become apparent that Stackhouse has become such a defensive liability and his offensive limitations in all areas other than scoring that his minutes should be limited especially during cruchtime (last 4 mins of close games). His ball handling has suffered greatly in his old-age (at least in basketball terms, he’s 33), he’s a terrible passer, not effective on the boards, and can’t guard faster players one-on-one effectively. This transition from offensive stalwart to liability has mainly taken place last year and continues today. This season against the Suns, for example, Dallas opened up an impressive lead by playing on both sides of ball and limiting turnovers. Jerry Stackhouse entered the game and immediately was responsible for 2 turnovers — dribbled off his foot on one possesion and a bad pass on another (the Mavs still won the game).

Some may point to Jerry Stackhouse’s performance in last years playoffs as proof that the old wheels may still have some legs. A closer look shows he performed well in one game aided heavily by refs that called fouls on balls he dribbled off his leg. Stackhouse’s points-on-floor rating (overall points +/- the team scored while he’s on the floor) was at -26 for the series.

This all seems obvious to those of us who watch Mavericks games on a consistent basis, but unfortunately Jerry’s biggest fan is head coach Avery Johnson. Johnson’s offensive playbook is simple to say the least, and that fits a one-dimensional player like Jerry Stackhouse very well.

Hopefully the coach will realize the liability status of Stackhouse and limit his minutes. I’d rather see the minutes go to Trenton Hassell (his time is severely limited) and Eddie Jones (having trouble staying healthy). Both players are proven defenders and can shoot well enough to hit open jumpers if given enough game minutes to feel comfortable in the offense. There are enough scorers on the team to make up for their limited offensive production (ala Bruce Bowen with the Spurs) and with the growth of Devin Harris, Brandon Bass, and JJ Barea the more they are all on the floor together the better.

This needs to happen soon. The playoffs will be here before you know it.

The Dallas Mavericks have started their season in a less than spectacular fashion, but it’s far from worrisome. The team is comprised of All-Star quality performers, and roll players that are devoted to team play. They are capable of explosive offense and shut down defense, and have one of the most intense coaches in NBA history.

The negatives this season have consisted mostly of inconsistent scoring and terrible defense. Inconsistent scoring can come and go. There will be times when teams seem to find themselves in a rut. That obviously didn’t happen much at all last year, until the playoffs. There have been a couple reasons for this particular problem.

1) Relying on the jumper.

2) Constant Change – trying new things, new lineup combinations, and limiting the lineup due to injuries.

The first, relying on the jumper, has been the Mavericks’ Achilles for a couple years now. Ever since Jason Terry clanked 3-pt attempt after attempt in the Finals of ’06, it’s been the single most glaring problem the team hasn’t fixed. But the fix is pretty simple: find players that take it within 15 feet.

The second, constant change, is a temporary problem. There were plenty of people, players and staff, that needed to learn from the failure of the ’07 playoffs. None more than Avery Johnson. His laser focus on technical accuracy of his game plan on both sides of the floor broke down the team over the course of the season. Failure to accept change hurt the team when going up against a team and coach, Don Nelson, who thrive on shaking things up.

The reason not to worry so early is that there is plenty of time to work on both negative aspects causing losses. Dallas is attempting to combat the jumper-only mentality by making changes in the lineup and philosophy. Avery Johnson, more than anyone, has learned from his failures last year and adapted his methods accordingly. Moving Jason Terry to 6th man, giving more latitude to Devin Harris, and the commitment to Brandon Bass will pay off in the long run. Although the team’s overall record may not be as good as last year, the team has improved.

Moving Jason Terry to the 6th man position clarifies his role on the team as a spot up shooter. His limited ability on the offensive and defensive ends are minimized and his scoring is maximized. He isn’t a point guard. He isn’t a good passer, and he isn’t as good defensively as others on the roster. Johnson knows he’s a great offensive player, and can adjust his playing time to match his mood (whether he’s hot or cold) without damaging his ego.

Devin Harris is, without question, the best guard on the team. He’s amazing defensively. That ability seems to be dismissed by some, but he’s a top-5 defensive guard in this league. He doesn’t get assists not because he isn’t capable, but because the offense is isolation-based. You can’t get an assist for passing to Dirk who then creates his own shot, whereas someone like Chris Paul is passing to Peja coming off double back door screens for a catch-and-shoot. Devin’s speed is something you just can’t coach. It’s a wonderful asset, and what can be coached is how to use it better. Harris can also be coached to be a better scorer. He’s wonderful and breaking people down and getting into the lane, but doesn’t finish well. If he can develop a lane-floater ala Nick Van Exel and Tony Parker he’ll be damn near unstoppable.

Allowing some of the bench players to develop is another huge bonus for the team. Avery wasn’t willing to give JJ Barea and Pops Mensa-Bonsu enough minutes last year during the season, instead choosing to put in an offensively horrible Austin Croshere and still offensively horrible Devean George. Those minutes would have been better spent developing some of the younger players and maybe getting them ready to contribute against young athletic teams like… oh, let’s say… Golden State. This season JJ Barea and new roster addition Brandon Bass are getting those minutes from a coach who’s learned his lesson. Both players have proved already that the time is worth it. JJ put up 25 pts earlier this season, and I think we all can agree that Brandon Bass, for as ugly as some of his shots are, has the body and athleticism this team so desperately needs.

One thing that is most impressive is the teams morale. Except for one argument between Terry and Dirk a few years ago there has been no bickering to be heard of. The team seems united in it’s goal and believes in each other. They have the roster, and the coach, to win a championship. Let’s not worry ourselves out of contention just yet.