We asked our panel the following question: For running backs, is it better to have a top yards rusher or a top touchdown scorer? Which type of running back will give your team more points?
Panel Member #1 – Ryan Ritter
When examining this, the first thing you have to ask is: What kind of league am I in? Are there big bonuses for 100/150/200/etc yard games? How much are TDs worth? Do I get points per reception (PPR)? Do I get points for rushing attempts? You’d be surprised what kind of rules you can get in for a bunch of different fantasy leagues. However, no matter what your answer is to the above questions, the most important conclusion you must come to is: Which player will give me consistent points.
Sometimes the yards just don’t add up unless your RB goes off for 100 or 150 in a game, and even then all it will take is a goal line back to steal the fantasy point thunder. All of a sudden that zero TD 150 game is dwarfed by the guy on cleanup duty that gets 3 TDs and 5 yards — Earnest Graham became a huge fantasy player in the past because of this (but probably not so much this year with Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward being good goal line choices).
In the end, the bottom line is that you have know the scoring of your league like the back of your hand. In nearly any format, rushing/receiving TDs will always get you the biggest chunk of points. If your league is standard like that, you have to make sure you hitch your wagon to the horse that gets in the endzone without question. Don’t rely on the yards solely, look for the yards as the boost to your RB scoring because you can’t count on a RB to go 100+/game, especially in this era of 2 RB systems. That is one of the reasons I’m predicting big things for Pierre Thomas this season — no matter what, the Saints want him to pound the ball in, plus they want him to shoulder a bigger load. Again the yards build on the TDs here.
Now if you are in a PPR league, that throws a whole other wrench into the equation. A little dump pass in the endzone all of a sudden scores 7 points. 5 catches means 5 points — and that’s before yards come into play (that’s nearly a TD in most formats). That makes backs like Felix Jones extremely dangerous week after week. He’ll likely give you a few consistent points game after game, and then bust a run or reception for a TD giving you a huge game for the week. Matt Forte tore up my cash PPR league last season being the favorite target for Orton and Hightower did much of the same as well. You’ll be surprised how quickly those little dump routes add up in a PPR league. Again though, you want to make sure, even in a PPR that your top horse can get in the endzone. A few points a game is nice, but getting the 5 or 6 point boost every other week or so is even better.
Panel Member #2 – Timothy Leckie
I think it all depends on the way your league is set up for scoring. One of my leagues scores rushing TD’s as 6 points and rushing yards as 1 point for every 10 yards. I would like to think my running back will average 100 yards and 2 touchdowns a game, but we all know that’s wishfully thinking! Most likely my running back will average 1 touchdown a game easier than 100 yards a game.
If your running back is not sharing any time, like Adrian Peterson, and they will average 100 yards and at least 1 touchdown a game, than you got the best of both worlds! If your picking between a Marion Barber and a Felix Jones, I would have to go with Barber! In my league touchdowns beat out yards all day!
Panel Member #3 – Steve Hartline
A balanced attack, unless you have one of the first picks.
Unless you have some weird settings in your FFL, you are better off with a balanced attack when it comes to RB production. What do I mean by balanced? You take both a grind it out yardage specialist and a x and goal bruiser. A back who hosses up and has the bulk of the carries quite often times puts up numbers similar to those that are brought in during Red Zone situations. Call me a homer, but if you had both Felix Jones and Marion Barber starting every week, you ought to garner 6-8 points with Felix for rushing yards, and 6-12 with Barber. That would be a nice balance.
But this also is dependent upon your draft order. If you have one of the first six to eight picks, you gotta go with the best back available (by best I am just going with default ranking). I had the #2 pick in one of my leagues and Adrian Peterson was still available. So DUH! I grabbed him. This totally changed the philosophy as described in the first paragraph.
Two final factor to consider are those *tweeners* that only rush 12-15 times a game, but also get thrown to 6-8 times: a Brian Westbrook type of player. These guys can also come up big if played in opportune matchups. Or who knows how many teams are going to employ the wildcat offense. Adding and knowing when to start this season’s Ronnie Brown might earn you a couple of additional ticks in the win column.
Bottom line is to draft to your weekly starting lineup, and keep an eye on the wires.
