Apologies for the delay in this week’s edition, Cowboy fans. Saturday evening started with a celebration of Cowboys postseason success and then from Sunday to now I have been laughing at the expense of Southern Cal, rival to my Alma Mater, as Pete Carroll jumped ship, rumors of NCAA sanctions were around the bend, and then last night it climaxed as they hired Lane Kiffin out of nowhere. To say my research for this week’s edition has been slightly sidetracked with these recent developments is a gross understatement.
However, stories of future Trojan sanctions and Kiffykins’ special “recruiting methods” will have to wait for another time and be written on in another place. It’s time to get back to work, break down the Cowboys offense and see what lead to our team’s first postseason victory in 13 long years.
Throughout the regular season, my goal was to analyze just exactly what the “Romo Friendly” offense means. Last week was the culmination of all of that research, allowing me to isolate the most important aspects of the Cowboys offense and come up with the three “Romo Friendly” keys to victory. This week, we will take a look at each key and see how well the Cowboys did in achieving each one. Based on this analysis, I will judge the validity of these three keys and see if they need to be changed for this Sunday’s matchup against the Vikings.
Key #1: Play Calling Balance
For this key, I said the Cowboys offense needed to stay within the lower end of what I determined was the “sweet spot” of pass plays being called: 55-60%. While the Cowboys have found success staying around the lower 60-percentile of pass plays in a game, I felt the rushing attack needed to be featured more prominently than usual based on the success the Cowboy have had against the Eagles on the ground and also the fact a solid running game would keep the quick strike offense off the field.
In round three against the Eagles, the Cowboys ran a total of 72 plays with 35 being runs and 37 coming through the air. This means we had an incredibly low rate of 51% pass for the entire game, which was even lower than I was expecting. However, digging a little bit deeper into the game, I realized the Cowboys did most of their damage in the first half of this game and understandably went very ground heavy in the second half.
So to get a better idea of Garret’s initial game plan, I did some additional analysis. I took a look at all the drives before the two minute warning. I choose this point for two reasons. First, the Cowboys were able to put up a sizable 24-7 lead at that point. Second, running a drive in the two minute drill means nothing but passing as a necessity (and in that drive the Cowboys were indeed 100% pass) and fails to give a good picture of the gameplan Garret had. With this in mind, the Cowboys ran 40 plays in that period of time with 16 rushes and 24 pass plays being called. This leads to a total of 60% pass plays being run in the first half pre-two minute drill, falling quite perfectly into the upper bound that I had set in my “Romo Friendly” key.
Garret came into the game with the perfect game plan. Key #1 was definitely achieved.
Key #2: Tony Romo
Last week, I found out that Tony Romo had two big statistical figures pop out. First was that he was 7-1 when he passes for over 300 yards, but more importantly Romo was 0-3 whenever he turned the ball over more than once in a game. With that in mind, for this key it was absolutely critical that Romo not turn the ball over more than once, and that getting over 300 yards would likely be a clincher in this game.
The result: Romo went 23/35 (65.7) for 244 yards and 2 TDs. More importantly, Romo did not turn over the ball at all. While Romo had a sub-300 yard game, as with the play balance, this should be taken in better context as the Cowboys clearly went more conservative in the second half. Romo’s numbers definitely reflect this as Romo threw the ball 27 times in the first half for 203 of his 244 yards. It’s quite hard to grab those 97 yards in the second half when you only throw the ball 8 more times.
The point here is that while Romo didn’t hit the 300 yard mark, it could be argued that if the Cowboys didn’t call of the dogs, he could’ve easily hit that mark. However, no matter which way you slice it, Romo didn’t turn the ball over at all and that was easily the bigger part of this key in my eyes. Needless to say, key #2 was also very much achieved.
Key #3: Red Zone
For this key, I didn’t really give exact numbers; however, I didn’t want to see the repeated woeful red zone efforts that had plagued much of the Cowboys season, especially against the Eagles. The mantra for this key was more or less to not leave a ton of points on the field.
This time around, the Cowboys were converted 3 of their 6 red zone visits into TDs. All three TDs came in “goal to go” situations, in which the Cowboys finished 3/4. Even more encouraging is the fact that the Cowboys were able to get points in all “goal to go” situations as the only failure resulted in a field goal. The other two red zone failures, however, did not result in points and penalties were to blame. While one of these failures came in the fourth quarter when it didn’t matter, the first failure came on the first drive for Dallas. Instead of getting points to start the game, the Cowboys were forced to punt.
Thankfully, that did not come back to haunt the Cowboys; however, it remains a very big point of concern going forward. Getting points on the board early is always a great boost and, when on the road, can silence a crowd.
For the most part, key #3 was a success.
The Verdict
The Cowboys hit perfectly on the first two “Romo Friendly” keys and did a very good job in following the third key. It is no surprised to me that the Cowboys were not able to win, but win easily against the Eagles because of this. Based on this success, I feel it is safe to say that these three “Romo Friendly” keys will again need to be followed when the Cowboys travel up north to Minnesota.
The only addendum that I wish to add is to the third key of scoring while in the red zone. Considering the Cowboys are going to be in quite the hostile environment, the first time they sniff the red zone they must score a touchdown. Preferably, this will happen on the first couple Cowboy possessions to take the crowd out of the game fast. The Cowboys simply cannot afford to leave the door open for Brett Favre and company by failing to put 7 points on the board. This will only feed a hostile crowd and it would also have the potential to make the Cowboys dig their way out of a hole they shouldn’t have been in to start.
So, to refresh, the three “Romo Friendly” keys to become NFC Title game bound:
1) Balance: Gameplan must be within the bounds of 55-60% pass.
2) Romo: Critical that he does not turn the ball over more than once and must shoot for the 300 yard plateau.
3) Red Zone: Must score points when in the red zone and it’s critical that the Cowboys turn their first red zone visit into a TD
