When is it appropriate to start thinking playoffs? The first game of the season. Getting to the playoffs is the goal of every team, or at least should be. So judging the competition and evaluating performance of your team in terms of the playoff picture makes sense. How is the conference playing out? Who are the key teams? Who’s for real? Who’s a fake? What are our chances once we’re there?
The Lakers are certainly for real. Considering they have improvements to make on defense they could be even better. Their win over Boston wasn’t enough to convince anyone that they are the dominant team in the league, but they are very good. With Bynum back from injury and Gasol playing the 4 they don’t have any weaknesses. Their bench players like Walton have been playing very well lately, although they will be missing serviceable backup PG Jordan Farmar for a month with a knee injury. They are putting up 107 pts per game and are killers at home.
The Hornets are a well-rounded club that can play up-tempo or slow the game down when they need to. Anchored by Chris Paul, Peja Stojakovic, and David West the club can reliably score enough points to win games while getting it done on the defensive end by giving up only 91 pts per game. If Peja can stay healthy and their role players continue to contribute as they have they will remain a premiere team in the West.
Let’s be clear – this is San Antonio’s last run. Their teams average age is 29.2 yrs old according to ESPN.com with NO young talent emerging thus far (Tony Parker is only 26 but he’s got some wear and tear). Tim, Tony, and Manu have been enough for the Spurs up until this point, but those days are numbered. Some sort of trade or free agent signing could change that next summer. They are certainly good enough to get to the Western Conference Finals, but another championship seems unlikely.
As the 7th seed the Mavericks are not in a favorable position. Dallas should play to try to position themselves as a 4th or 5th seed. Anything less makes them susceptible to another one-and-done season and this team has too much potential for that kind of disappointment. Teams that Dallas wants to avoid are the current top three of LA, New Orleans, and San Antonio. Those teams will be incredibly tough to beat. I’m assuming the top three are going to stay the same with probably San Antonio ending up as the second seed. The 4th seed for the Mavericks would be ideal because of home court and better matchup opportunities.
Denver, Houston, and Portland are all beatable in seven game series. Chauncey Billups is playing well in Denver and has them producing with regularity on the offensive end. JR Smith is playing far better than I thought he ever would, and even Nene doesn’t look like crap. Their defense isn’t as good as it has been in years past, which could be a real problem come playoff time. Houston has done well to keep everyone mostly healthy, but it never lasts for very long. One or more of their Big Three will go down when it matters most and they’ll once again go home first round losers, if they don’t slip out of the top 8 all together. Portland is playing well and is an exciting young team to watch. I think they are over reaching a bit right now. I’m predicting a 7th seed for them as they falter a bit but give San Antonio well hell of a scare in the first round this year.
Phoenix sits at the 8th seed right now with Utah just out of it at 19-14. Utah hasn’t been healthy all year and is still without Boozer (for at least a month) and Paul Millsap (ready to return within the next week). Deron Williams is getting back into the swing of things after missing the beginning of the season, and Ronnie Brewer is stepping up big in place of Boozer and Millsap. Utah is a good team that plays well on both ends. They certainly have the talent to get into the playoffs, but probably not as high a seed because of that slow start. Phoenix, on the other hand, isn’t nearly as good and will probably not make the playoffs this year. They are giving up 102 pts per game on sieve-like defense, and are inconsistent on the offensive end. They have talented veteran players on their team but, without D’Antoni’s offensive minded coaching, just can’t put it all together.
Grant Hill, Jason Richardson, Matt Barnes, and Leandro Barbosa are all overrated. Shaq can still put together a commanding performance, but only twice a year. The best players on the team are Steve Nash with a bad back getting worse and the never consistent Amare Stoudemire. Their young talent consists of Robin Lopez and… that’s it. Oh did I mention they are coached by Terry Porter whose blank stare looks like he’s just had dental surgery and could start drooling at any moment. They’ll end up on the outside looking in and kicking themselves for letting D’Antoni go.
I see the playoff breakdown like this:
Lakers, Spurs, Hornets, Denver, Dallas, Utah, Portland, and Houston.
Lakers whoop Houston like they stole somethin’. Spurs slip past Portland in a tough seven games. Utah beats the Hornets because New Orleans doesn’t have an advantage at home with all 12 of their fans showing up. Dallas beats Denver when George Karl, Carmelo Anthony, JR Smith, and Kenyon Martin are suspended for 3 of the 6 games for brawling with each other.
Lakers beat Dallas but we put up a good fight. Spurs beat Utah in a seven game series that deserves to be played in the Thunderdome.
Lakers beat a very tired and beat up San Antonio team in 5 games.
